Officials last year admitted they had bought no spare parts for months because of lack of funds.Kam Air was Afghanistan’s first private airline and was generally better regarded by expatriates and Afghans, many of whom preferred its relatively cheap fares to risking long, bumpy journeys on dangerous roads notorious for accidents and banditry.It started flying last year, operating a fleet of leased Boeing and Antonov planes on Afghan routes and to Dubai and Istanbul. An apparent crash site was found by Nato search aircraft but could not be checked before nightfall. Troops tried to reach the site by helicopter but the search was suspended because of freezing fog. Most passengers on the flight from the western city of Herat were Afghans but 19 foreigners are also believed to have died. The deal on offer at that point included total weapons IRA decommissioning together with the installation of Mr Paisley ­ for decades a republican hate-figure ­ as First Minister.At a deeper level, the suspicion exists that Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness may have lost control of the republican movement and that more militaristic elements are taking charge Once again there is great doubt. An inclusive settlement is, however, regarded as impossible if republicans refuse to give up illegalities..

One high-level source said: “Another question is how much control Adams and McGuinness have over the whole organisation.”This possibility is perhaps the one most concerning London and Dublin, since the entire peace process has been based on the principle of inclusion. That attack was said by the organisation to be a response to the “bad faith” of the Major government.Another theory is that “they did it because they could”, trying to take advantage of the fact that previous smaller robberies have been played down in both London and Dublin.It has not been ruled out that the purpose was to provide a “retirement fund” for IRA members who would become inactive. One source commented: “That’s just a theory, but quite an attractive one.”Yet another is that the raid was intended as an assurance to republican rank and file members who were concerned that Sinn Fein and the IRA might be conceding too much in the pre-Christmas negotiations. A related notion is that, since the bank was about to be taken over by another, this pushed the IRA into moving sooner rather than later. This means the governments’ goal of devolution is highly unlikely to be achieved until 2006 at the earliest, which in turn means a lengthy period of vacuum in which the peace process might unravel further.At senior political and security levels there is a lack of certainty as to why republicans should have brought such disruption to the peace process.”It was a Canary Wharf without the casualties, that’s one theory,” said one source, referring to the 1996 bombing in London which killed two people and inflicted huge damage. The sense of anger in republican ranks is now so strong, however, that this will not easily happen again.Before devolution can be achieved, Ian Paisley as well as the governments, will require the most binding promises from republicans that bank robberies and other illegalities will never happen again.The IRA is in no mood to offer such assurances but, even if it eventually did, this will inevitably be followed by a long period of verification that IRA illegality has ceased. Only a few months ago the IRA offered to put its entire armoury beyond use as part of an emerging political deal.At that point the authorities were hopeful of an historic breakthrough which would see a new administration led by Sinn Fein and the Rev Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party.But now the IRA has been blamed for carrying out a robbery on a spectacular scale, which has caused many to question its intentions of ever giving up on illegal activity and moving into democratic politics.The organisation has now said its arms offer is off the table, a tactic it has resorted to in the past and which has proved reversible.

A central issue is that London and Dublin flatly reject repeated republican denials of involvement. They therefore regard each new denial from the Sinn Fein leaders, Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, as self-inflicted blows on their own credibility.Republicans and the Irish government have been particularly at odds, with the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, listing IRA robberies and beatings, and glaring at Sinn Fein representatives in the Dail as he spoke of “the kind of tactics in which you and some of your friends engage”.The deterioration in relations has happened at a startling rate. Troubling signs of dangerous volatility within the IRA yesterday are generating fears that the Northern Ireland peace process could deteriorate from crisis into free fall. “The list of theories is almost endless,” said a senior source. Another added: “We’re still searching around for the answer to the question of why they did it.”But the organisation is emitting unmistakable signals of increasing tensions in its ranks. The stone is deteriorating and not in very good condition because people cannot afford to do the work themselves. In a World Heritage Site, that is a disgrace.”The criticism comes on top of strongly worded attacks on the city’s governance by newspaper columnists.