To take just one extremely important example: Kerry’s green record is as strong as Gore’s, and he has threatened to filibuster any bill that permits drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.19. His recent clanger on the bill for the Iraq war: “I actually did vote for the $87bn before I voted against it”, was a classic But he is up against George Bush, not Abraham Lincoln.18. It would make a difference if Kerry won, even if Ralph Nader cannot see it. In fact, Nader, the left-wing spoiler candidate, admitted last time that Gore would be a better president than Bush, yet he ran anyway, knowing it could hand the election to Bush, which it did. But Kerry is seen by 61 per cent as a strong leader, and his foreign policy experience reassures floating voters worried about US isolation in Iraq and elsewhere And he has fought, and killed, for his country Not easy to portray as soft.17 Kerry is a waffler and a flip-flopper who makes mistakes.

The lodestone of US polling is the uniquely American “right track, wrong track” question: 54 per cent of Americans now say that the country has “gotten off on the wrong track”.16. The war on terror is not the electoral trump card that the Bush campaign hopes it is. It is true that American voters say (by a margin of 51 per cent to 40 per cent) they would prefer to be led by Bush than Kerry in the event of a major terrorist attack. It may be relevant that Hoover was a Republican president who ran for re-election and lost.15 The opinion polls are touch-and-go. It is too late for Bush to avoid the fate of being the first President since Herbert Hoover to have ended a term with fewer Americans in work than at the start. (Nevada, with only five electoral college votes, could produce a tied election, but let us worry about that when we get there.) Above all, Kerry could win Ohio, a big rust-belt state with 20 electoral college votes, where Bush’s jobs record really counts against him.14.

As long as he does not lose any Gore states, he only needs one. It is worth remembering that the last election was effectively a dead heat, because Kerry is a better candidate than Al Gore, and Bush’s negatives, as US pollsters call them, have gone up.13. To get to the White House, Kerry must win New Hampshire, already regarded as a safe Democratic state, plus one swing state that Gore failed to win last time He could take Arizona, Colorado, Nevada or even Missouri. Kerry can win the presidency even if he does not take Florida, which was awarded to Bush by one vote four years ago.12. Most people think Bush won Florida by 537 votes; in fact, he took it by five votes to four in the Supreme Court.

The rise of Howard Dean energised the party, while the fall of Howard Dean convinced the wider electorate that the party was serious about competing in the centre ground.11. Although he is behind, Kerry has started raising money, fast. The party’s core vote is motivated to get rid of Bush in a way that it simply was not in 2000, when it was lulled by the soft rhetoric of “compassionate conservatism”. The Kerry campaign has already set the pace with its “prebuttals”, countering Bush’s attacks even before they are launched.10 The Democratic Party is in good shape. But one of the joys of democracy, even in America, is that, although money is important, it is not everything. Commentators are so in awe of Bush’s money that they assume his campaign will be slick and overwhelming.