“We will be profitable from January, although our cash flow will now be much lower,” he added.
Privately the former British Coal director said yesterday that he had no intention of relinquishing his post as chairman. “I have a firm determination to see this thing through,” he said.Coal Investments asked for its shares to be suspended on Tuesday after Staffordshire County Council refused planning permission for the Rowhurst seam at Hem Heath. The company was relying on the extra coal and revenue from the Hem Heath colliery to support a refinancing and its fourth equity issue early next year.The company and the banks, which have instructed Arthur Andersen to give independent advice, have gone back to the drawing board to re-evaluate the basis of the rights issue.Some institutions have already said that they are not likely to support a rescue rights issue with Mr Edwards still in the position of chairman and chief executive. The company has appointed head-hunters to look for a new chief executive.Mr Edwards, though, is confident he retains the support of his bankers, led by NatWest, UBS and Banque Indosuez.Shares were suspended at 25p.. In the investment world there is nothing worse than a stale bull justifying adisappointing performance with forecasts of imminent recovery. Gold bugs have been doing it for years, predicting a dramatic breakout in the bullion price since the early Eighties, when the metal briefly approached $1,000 an ounce. Since those heady days, when it looked as if the world economy was heading into simultaneous slump and hyper-inflation, the gold price has trended downwards or sideways, although there was a brief surge in 1993 when George Soros and James Goldsmith were reported to be big buyers.
It came to nothing and the price has been confined in a narrow range between $350 and $370 an ounce this year.
Yet the World Gold Council confidently predicts that world demand will reach a record 3,250 tonnes this year, far in excess of new mine supply, leaving the market dependent on supplies of scrap gold and sales by central banks.Another reason for optimism is the response of South African mining houses to an only marginally profitable year, which traditionally is to sell gold forward and borrow metal from central banks to meet their contracts. The bullion market went into a brief flurry recently when some central banks decided to scale down the amounts of gold they were willing to supply to the market to cover those sales.But the most exciting event in the bullion market has been the recent forecast that the world’s main monetary authorities will resume regular auctions of gold reserves. That could drive down the price by $50, at which point, the theory goes, gold would be such a bargain that every woman in India would go out and buy another bangle, triggering the long- awaited surge in gold prices. It is hardly a flawless argument.For UK private investors, if they buy that line, the main exposure to the gold market is not physical metal, coins, or even individual gold mining shares, but the six or eight specialist unit trusts that invest in gold mining shares and exploration stocks. Gold trusts are traditionally very volatile and pay only modest dividends.
Over the last three years, however, they have outperformed most other funds.Save & Prosper’s Gold and Exploration Fund, for example, claims 30 per cent compound growth over three years. This year, however, gold funds have underperformed the market. S&P is down 8 per cent since the start of the year, and Old Mutual is in the process of winding up its small Gold Trust. But hope springs eternal and over the next 12 months S&P’s Gold and Exploration could outperform general trusts based on stock markets, which are looking increasingly fully valued.Litigation no threat to BATWhen a state such as Massachusetts threatens litigation against your company it is not something to be brushed aside lightly. Especially when it is the latest in a string of governments to try and recoup some of the enormous health-care costs inflicted by smoking.If some of the statistics relating to the evil weed are to be believed, however, it will take more than a vague threat of legal action to unsettle BAT.
